Repeat this to yourself

[jan_andrea]

She could be president. SHE could be PRESIDENT. President.

Gaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh

McCain's got an actuarial life expectancy of 2-4 more years, folks.

If you're the praying type, please pray :(

Comments

[allyphoe.livejournal.com]

Not that I disagree with you on the conclusions or anything...

How do you figure his actuarial life expectancy? The IRS tables for calculating required minimum distributions from retirement accounts, which are intended to make sure that you take your money out at least as fast as "over your remaining life expectancy" say a 72yo has an average 15.5 year remaining life expectancy. (I'm using the beneficiary table; the "normal" joint-and-survivor's table is based on the last to die of two people.)

You can't just say "white males have an average life expectancy of 74," because that's life expectancy at birth. By the time you're 72, you've already managed to not die in the most-dangerous first year of life (or any of the other years prior to 71). You have to look at a pool of people who are 71 today, and see what their mortality curve looks like.

See also http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/998080/john_mccain_too_old_for_the_presidency.html, which says 9.5 years of actuarial life expectancy.

[jan-andrea.livejournal.com]

I probably used the wrong term, but apparently with the type of skin cancer he had/has, he's looking at 2-4 years. From here (http://www.alternet.org/story/100069/has_sarah_palin_been_picked_as_the_titular_head_of_the_coming_police_state/?page=entire): "Reputable dermatologists are discussing the fact that in simply actuarial terms, John McCain has a virulent and life-threatening form of skin cancer. It is the elephant in the room, but we must discuss the health of the candidates: doctors put survival rates for someone his age at two to four years."

Not exactly a neutral source, of course, but what he's been through in his life isn't doing him any favors :(